U.S. Consumer Spending/Unemployment

U.S. Consumer Spending/Unemployment

U.S. Consumer Spending

An article today titled 'Consumer Spending Contracts as the Great Recession Rolls On' in summary says talk of U.S. economic recovery is 'pure spin' and the equity markets have their heads 'in the sand'.  Not bad 'food for think-for-yourselfers'.  I suggest you read it - reading time 3 minutes.   I commented on this article this morning as follows:

I agree with 'The Housing Time Bomb's' views. That said, I think one needs also to focus on what I see as the 'flip side'. Less U.S. consumer spending will result in lower U.S. GDP - but importantly it will result in less tax intake at both the Federal and State levels, which in turn will promote even higher Federal and State deficits than are forecast.

I consider the comment I made quite important.  I think that all too often articles and comments are more of a 'reporting' nature than a 'connect the dots' nature.  Every 'action' typically has a consequences.  Many times the consequences are more important than the 'action' that gives rise to them.

U.S. Unemployment - Article and Charts

A second article this morning titled '(U.S.) Unemployment Rate:  June's 9.5% Reading Was Misleading' has some excellent commentary and charts on the reported U.S. Unemployment Rate.  I suggest you read the article and review the charts - reading time 5 minutes - as I think they show important data and show it in an easily understood manner.  I commented on this article this morning as follows:

Bingo. Excellent charts and good commentary. Note to 'Chartfacts': I would find it extremely helpful if you could write a follow-up article (or reply to this comment) setting out what your research tells you has been the 'true U.S. unemployment rate' each month from, say, January, 2008 to date - with an accompanying Chart. If you can generate such a Chart, I (and I am sure others) likewise would find it very helpful if you then generated a Seeking Alpha article each month in which you updated that Chart.

I consider the 'real' U.S. unemployment rate a critically important statistic that is spoken about often but in my view not well substantiated.  Any such 'quoted rate' must be an approximation given the way U.S. unemployment rates are generated.  That said, an approximation with a possible 'deviation range' of 25% up or down is much less useful than one with a 'deviation range' of 10% up or down.  I have always been very skeptical of the U.S. unemployment rate reported statistics, and continue to be.

U.S. Unemployment - More

Here is a third article today on U.S. unemployment that I think you ought to read - reading time 5 minutes.  Titled 'Attacking Unemployment' if is a summary of the problems and some of the suggested solutions related to prospective U.S. job creation.  I commented on this article this morning as follows:

Good article. That said, what about the long-term outlook. I can't see that as being other than bleak either.

Prior U.S. Administrations seemed to adopt a view that America could function as a 'service provider' of technology and professional services to the rest of the world - particularly the developing countries - and such an U.S. economic environment could (or would) be even better for the American people than the manufacturing/service economic structure that prevailed prior to (say) 1999. I never bought into that, as to me manufacturing jobs are where 'more lasting value' is added, and service jobs largely produce immediate consumables or technology that most often is transportable to, or adaptable by, those in other countries. As I see it, developed countries that do not have a large part of their GDP based on their natural resource industries currently are in a downward spiral that can't likely be reversed by 'trade protectionism', government subsidy programs, or for that matter likely much of anything else.

I am highly curious as to whether readers of this e-mail agree with the views I have expressed in the foregoing comment.  Please e-mail me at info@stockresearchportal.com and let me know - as I have said in prior e-mails 'disagreement with my views is to me far more valuable than agreement with them'.

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